Recession Monitor

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Recession risk gauge

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Consecutive growth quarters

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quarters

In expansion since Q3 2020

QoQ growth

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YoY growth

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Latest quarter

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Last recession

Q1–Q2 2020

Unemployment

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CPI Inflation

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RBA cash rate · What it means

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Next GDP data drop

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Data refreshed

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Next ABS release

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✓ Expansion

Two or more consecutive quarters of positive GDP growth. Australia has been expanding since Q3 2020.

Why it matters to you: Jobs are easier to find, wages tend to grow, and businesses invest more. The economy is working in your favour.

Per capita recession

GDP grows but slower than population — meaning the average Australian is going backwards financially even as the total economy expands.

Why it matters to you: The headline numbers look fine, but your share of the pie is shrinking. You may feel squeezed even when the news says the economy is growing.

Technical recession

Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Australia's last was Q1–Q2 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Why it matters to you: Businesses cut costs and freeze hiring. Job security weakens, wage growth stalls, and banks tighten lending. The most direct impact on everyday Australians.

Quarterly GDP growth (QoQ %) — last 4 quarters Calendar year quarters (Q1 Jan–Mar · Q2 Apr–Jun · Q3 Jul–Sep · Q4 Oct–Dec)

Growth Sluggish Contraction

RBA Cash Rate Target Reserve Bank of Australia · Statistical Table F1 · Last 3 years

— % p.a. —

▼ Stimulatory (<2%) Neutral (~2–3.5%) Restrictive / Tightening ▲

Effective — · Source: RBA Table F1

Australian Net Debt All Australian governments · ABS GFS 2024–25 · live estimate

—% of GDP

Source: ABS Government Finance Statistics (Cat. 5512.0) · All Australia general government · 2024–25 · Growth estimated at ~$411m/day
Baseline figure updated manually each year when ABS publishes new GFS data

Term	What it actually means	Why you should care
GDP	Gross Domestic Product — the total value of everything Australia produces in a given period. Think of it as the economy's report card.	When GDP grows, the economy is healthy. When it shrinks, it usually means businesses are struggling and jobs become harder to find.
Recession	Two consecutive quarters where Australia's GDP shrinks rather than grows. It's the official definition used by economists worldwide.	Leads to businesses cutting costs, fewer job opportunities, slower wage growth, and tighter bank lending. The most direct economic impact on households.
QoQ	Quarter on Quarter — how much the economy grew compared to the three months before it.	The freshest signal of where the economy is heading right now. Two negative QoQ readings back-to-back = recession.
YoY	Year on Year — how much the economy grew compared to the same quarter twelve months ago.	Less noisy than QoQ. Good for filtering out one-off events and seeing the real underlying trend.
RBA Cash Rate	The interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia sets as the baseline cost of borrowing money. Think of it as the wholesale price of money that flows through to your mortgage.	When it rises, your variable mortgage rate goes up within days. A 0.25% rise on a $600k mortgage costs roughly $90/month more. It's the most direct policy lever that affects everyday Australians.
Per Capita Recession	When GDP grows, but more slowly than the population — so the average person's share of the economy is actually shrinking.	You feel poorer even when the news says the economy is fine. Australia experienced this for seven consecutive quarters in 2023–24.
Basis Point (bp)	One hundredth of a percentage point. The RBA typically moves rates in 25bp increments.	When you hear "the RBA raised rates by 25 basis points", that means 0.25% — which translates directly to higher repayments on variable-rate loans.
Net Debt	Total government borrowings minus financial assets held (cash, investments, loans). The ABS all-government figure ($954.9b) includes Commonwealth plus all states and territories — more complete than the Commonwealth-only MYEFO figure ($587.5b).	Net debt across all Australian governments reached 34.4% of GDP in 2024-25. It's the most complete picture of what Australia as a whole owes.
Unemployment	The percentage of Australians in the labour force who are actively looking for work but cannot find it. Published monthly by the ABS Labour Force Survey.	A rising rate means fewer jobs and fiercer competition. It often lags GDP — unemployment can keep rising even after the economy starts recovering.
CPI Inflation	Consumer Price Index — measures how much the price of a typical basket of goods and services has changed over 12 months. The RBA targets 2–3%.	Above 3% means your dollar buys less each year. The RBA raises interest rates to bring it down, which increases mortgage costs.